Revealed preferences about partition

Young Irelander ponders the question:

..I said I would go around Dublin posing questions with last week's one being, 'Do Irish people care whether Ireland is reunited or not?'

I was going to just add a comment to his post but it became a bit more of a blog-post instead. The thing is that such a simple query would be useless unless your primary concern was to reinforce your a priori assumptions. Ask the average (non-unionist) Irish person "Do you want a United Ireland?" and the answer will tend to be "Sure, why not" considerably more often than "Naah, don't think so". But this facile expressed preference doesn't say much about the strength of that preference. Ask the average Irish person "Do you want to go on holidays to the Bahamas?" and you will get a similar profile of positive replies. Yet Irish people aren't decamping en masse to the Caribbean holiday spot. The revealed preference of Irish holidaymakers is that, say, Santa Ponsa in Majorca, when all factors are considered, is a more desirable destination than the Bahamas.

A better way to get the answer to the question is to ask instead "How much would you personally be prepared to pay for a United Ireland?" (this could take the form of a fixed payment, or perhaps an ongoing stipend). My guess is that the answers elicited by this question would indicate considerably more apathy than enthusiasm for unity.

If I were asked, I would probably say €0.00, but then if I were asked how much I would pay to retain partition, I would probably also say €0.00 or perhaps a small amount, say €5.00, to reflect my preference for greater partition generally. I am in favour of 'proper' decentralisation, as opposed to the dispersed centralisation proposed by the current government masquerading by that name, consisting of devolved government with locally derived, competing tax and regulatory regimes and and suggest that Ireland needs more borders, not fewer. Contrary to popular belief the presence of the border, assuming a reduced incidence of terrorist violence, is a boon, not a hindrance, to economic and social activity in the Dundalk-Newry area.

Comments

[Abiola Lapite]

The thing about questions like this is that there's intense social pressure to say the "right" thing, so one hardly ever hears what people really feel about the issue, even if they've seriously thought about it.

One sees a similar dynamic in South Korea: everyone says they're in favor of re-unification, and the sooner the better, but in practice they react with annoyance at the sight of ever more refugees from the North, and their government has shifted policy to reflect this. The funny thing is that the pro-unification rhetoric is, if anything, now even louder than it used to be!

[Frank McGahon]

It sounds like the (South) Koreans have a similar "Augustinian" attitude to that of the (RoI resident) Irish - "Give me Unity, but not yet!"

[Peter Nolan]

West Brit...securocrat...self-determination...unionist veto...

[Frank McGahon]

Is there a point there or is that just free-form northern-nationalist jazz poetry? or perhaps a Provo Haiku!

[Peter Nolan]

Think of it as a jazz score, which is a nice analogy between two forms of thought with their heads firmly wedged up their asses.

[Frank McGahon]

Hey, don't knock the jazz! It's not all "noodling" you know (I'm a big fan of jazz music, particularly 1970s jazz-funk, Roy Ayers, Lonnie Liston Smith, Flying Dutchman label, Mizzell brothers etc.)

[Young Irelander]

Sometimes when I discuss the North with friends of mine I'm met with responses like "They should just nuke the place and be done with it" etc.
I think alot of Irish people are apathetic about issues like Irish unity and about politics in general.

By the way,thanks for the link Frank.
I'll be sure to return the favour.

[Frank McGahon]

I'm met with responses like "They should just nuke the place and be done with it" etc.

One suggestion for the North popularly mooted here in Dundalk (well, except in certain pubs!) is "the angle-grinder solution" - take an angle grinder to the border, starting at Omeath and cut your way across to Donegal, then give it a mighty shove and push Northern Ireland out to sea! (not that I subscribe to this myself...)

[Peter Nolan]

Well, maybe you can enlighten me, but I'm pretty much in agreement with the guy in the committments - "wanker music". I have Bitches Brew on CD, which is one of the few pieces of jazz I really like enough to play often.

[Frank McGahon]

I would have thought The Commitments' epithet more accurately described the execrable racket belted out by that rabble!

As for Jazz, well you could do worse than start with the artists I mentioned but the term encompasses a lot. I'll have a think about it and perhaps do a little jazz primer post.

[Gavin]

I do have a great interest in politics, but when it comes to the North I just can't get myself interested. It really wouldn't bother me either way. In fact I don't think it would be bother me much if Ireland had stayed part of the UK in the first instance.

[Frank McGahon]

That's a very good point Gavin, apathy about the North and apathy about politics generally are two separate phenomena and oughtn't be conflated. Just because someone is heartily sick of Northern Ireland politics (and I get that way sometimes myself), doesn't mean that this ennui extends elsewhere. Further, it is often the case that those who are least apathetic about the North display little interest in the type of political arguments which rage outside of that province. Try and engage a Northern Ireland politician, of either side, about, say, optimum tax policy or environmental issues and you will either get a blank stare, some 1970s era platitudes or a careful steer towards their usual hobby horses.

[enda johnson]

frank,
The revealed preference of Irish holidaymakers is that, say, Santa Ponsa in Majorca, when all factors are considered, is a more desirable destination than the Bahamas
i'm not sure this supports your argument, as obviously the Bahamas is unattainable for most people for a host of reasons. similarly, reunification appears unattainable to most, but i don't see that you can infer from that, that irish people don't really want it.

as for the ""How much would you personally be prepared to pay for a United Ireland?" eliciting a lukewarm response, you are of course correct. i would however expect a lukewarm response to any such question proposing more school buildings, hospital beds, motorways or indeed anything it is usually left to governments to provide. this does not mean the government should not pursue such policies. (unless you are a doctrinaire libertarian of course!)

the revealed preferences of the irish people do not suggest an attachment to libertarianism.

[Frank McGahon]

as obviously the Bahamas is unattainable for most people for a host of reasons

Which is why I said "when all factors are considered". You can't divorce those "host of reasons" from desirability. If the Bahamas were truly desirable, at any cost then it would expect to receive more Irish holidaymakers than Santa Ponsa.

In advance of a poll being carried out we can't say for sure but I suspect you are wrong about school-buildings, hospital beds, motorways etc. These are things from which people get noticeable benefits and my guess is that the survey would demonstrate stronger preferences than for unity. In fact, there are other reasons to believe this - many people claim to be in favour of tax raises, in principle, to fund health or education spending, people actually pay for private healthcare and toll roads and often pay towards their schools' building programmes.

My point is not that Irish people "don't really want" unification but that they probably don't really care all that much about it one way or another. This weak preference would not be obvious from a straightforward poll but should appear in a "how much would you pay" type poll.

the revealed preferences of the irish people do not suggest an attachment to libertarianism.

It depends on how you define "libertarianism". Given the cavalier attitude Irish people display to tax and assorted regulations, I would draw the opposite conclusion. There's nothing noble about desiring liberty for yourself while calling for restrictions on other people's liberty.

[enda johnson]

... Given the cavalier attitude Irish people display to tax and assorted regulations ...
touché!

[Seán Mac Cann]

It's a misconception that all Northern Nationalists want a united Ireland. Many say they do, but the real intent is to be free of the British, as independence for a place the size of NI is not seen as viable. The real split in Ireland, as ever, is between Dublin and the Pale. I feel instantly at home everywhere in Ireland apart from in Dublin which, some glitzy shops and clubs aside, is socially an old-fashioned pre-war English city in a time-warp, full of proles with a pathetic, lifelong infatuation with Man U, and posh twits in Foxrock with affected non-rhotic accents. You’re welcome to them. Ironically, while the later grouping gel very well on a social level with “car-creche” middle-class Unionists from Bangor etc, I doubt if most ordinary Nationalists in NI have any desire to be ruled by the big-business poodles in the likes of the PDs. How would that represent an improvement? I reckon if you spelt out the practical implications of Irish unity to many nominal Northern Nationalists, they wouldn’t be that keen either.

[Seán Mac Cann]

ps: I reckon the outpouring of begrudgery in Southern papers flowing the two most recent Ulster All-Ireland GAA football wins did more to set back the chances of Irish unity than anything that Paisley ever managed to achieve ;)

See the article by Tom McGurk in the Sunday Business Post:

http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2003/08/31/story476165042.asp

The context was sport, but the ridiculous reaction of Southern GAA pundits revealed that they’re only comfortable with Nordies when they can patronise them.

[Young Irelander]

Sean MacCann I think you're talking crap.
The real intent for northern nationalists is to be free of the British?So they have no love for Irish culture just alot of anti-British xenophobia?Bollocks.
Irish culture has as much a place in the North than anywhere else in Ireland.

Also,your ignorant view of Dublin smacks of someone bitter about the multicultural aspect of the city.
I find your narrow-minded view of Dublin pathetic.

[Frank McGahon]

Seán, I think the split between Dublin versus the Pale (or is it Dublin and the Pale versus the rest of Ireland?) is mostly in your head. Particularly so as Dublin expands. It could even be argued that the sixty mile or so radius around Dublin is a kind of virtual Dublin.

Incidentally, if NI nationalists, as you suggest, want

a) "to be free of the British"

and

b) "independence for a place the size of NI is not seen as viable"*

and

c) "if you spelt out the practical implications of Irish unity to many nominal Northern Nationalists, they wouldn’t be that keen either"

what is it you think they do want?

* I actually disagree with this, the supposed non-viability of an independent NI is really one thing both sides agree to agree upon because a) it allows them to retain ideological purity and ignore second preference compromises and b) they are wedded to the huge transfers from Westminster (or Dublin should unification take place) and don't want to consider economic reform.

[Mrs Tilton]

Ah, Frank, I'm late to this party, I see. But when you ask, 'what would be prepared to pay for unification?', the respondent should not, of course, be limited to considering monetary payment.

For example: 'Would you really be prepared to share your state with them madmen (irrespective of their respective digging-feet) up there?' Roy Foster is right: partition has, in real terms, been an enormous boon to the independent Irish state. Yes, EU dosh, a competitive tax regime and a well-educated young population of native English-speakers are all a big part of the explanation for the Republic's impressive growth, but it can be argued that partition (and the concomitant relative isolation from the problems afflicting the Wee North) prepared the ground.

As for your angle-grinder solution, I don't like the pushing-out-to-sea bit. (I have a lot of time for most northerners.) But there was a popular usenet meme a few years back: the Dundalk-to-Derry Canal Company Teo.

[Frank McGahon]

As someone who lives very near the border I'm very much of the opinion that it has been a boon. The only reason this is notable is that it contradicts the received wisdom which has fuelled all the pork-barrel border-counties boosterism. The thing is that it is a boon for both sides - comparative advantage is allowed to do its work. Newry is great for maternity care (my children were born in Daisy Hill) and smoking in pubs (if that's your thing). Dundalk is great for cheaper motor fuel, and non-smoking pubs (if that's your thing).

As for the angle grinder, I did say I didn't subscribe to it myself, I have a lot of time for Northern Ireland as a place, it is the politics of that province which wears me out.

[Twenty Major]

If they gave me €100,000 I'd still tell them to fuck off for inflicting Julian on Friday on us.

[Mouthy Belfast Bint]

If they gave me €100,000 I'd still tell them to fuck off for inflicting Julian on Friday on us.

Hey, why should all the pain, misery and suffering be confined to the six counties? ;-)

Besides, just think of who we gave to the Brits - Gloria Hunniford, Eamon Holmes *and* Patrick Kielty. You guys had a lucky escape.

[Frank McGahon]

Not to mention Alan Green!

[Seán Mac Cann]

Dear Young Irelander, what age are you anyway, and where have you lived forby Dublin? Anyway, taking your points in turn:

"The real intent for northern nationalists is to be free of the British?So they have no love for Irish culture just alot of anti-British xenophobia?Bollocks."

If you look at the CRA demands that started the current Troubles, none of their demands had anything to do with a united Ireland. It was only when the Orange State overreacted that Nationalists in the North perceived that the place was a "failed entity". I saw lots of graffiti saying: "Brits out"; but I never saw any saying "Unity now"; or anything remotely like it. Did you live in the North during the Troubles, or at all? I may have a slightly better handle on the un-admitted motivations of Northern Nationalists than you do.

Neither is it a lot of "anti-British xenophobia." The desire of Northern Nationalists to get the British out of Ireland is a rational and legitimate political position. If you had grown up being hassled by the Brits and by the local Orangemen/UDR, I suspect you too would have started to come to stark conclusions about the nature and sustainability of the British presence in the North of Ireland.

“Irish culture has as much a place in the North than anywhere else in Ireland.”

I never said it hadn't. I play traditional music; am big into GAA and even after umpteen years away from school can still get by in basic Irish. The point is, many Northern Nationalists look at Celtic tiger Ireland and don't see much specifically Irish culture, either societal or artistic, anymore. The place seems ruled by consumerism; and its lived culture is closer to the US than to anything recognisably Irish. As you know, it is one of the most economically divided societies in the EU.

"Also,your ignorant view of Dublin smacks of someone bitter about the multicultural aspect of the city. I find your narrow-minded view of Dublin pathetic."

I've lived and worked in Dublin since 1998; helped set up a business here and employed 60 Dubliners. You mayn't like my viewpoints; fair enough; but ignorant they ain't. On my travels through the fair city, I have met three broad types of Dubliner – a forgotten underclass; ordinary decent Dubs and the West Brits with the hooray accents. That isn’t “multi-cultural”; it’s class division; and it hasn’t changed in decades.

As for Dublin being “multicultural”; I’m not convinced. There are many barely-tolerated immigrants about; but the level of everyday casual racism – not just in Dublin, but everywhere in Ireland, North and South - is depressing. You can hardly dispute that, after the enthusiasm with which we passed McDowell’s cynical referendum. I lived in London for years; and thought it was pretty racist, but it is slightly less racist than Dublin. The big difference is that racists in London have learned to keep their conceal their prejudices; what shocked me was how frank Dubliners were about it. I saw teenage girls in Christchurch roaring abuse at an embarrassed black man in the street one evening recently; I never saw anything like that in London, not even when I lived in the East End.

Having said all that, I like Dublin. Otherwise, I wouldn’t stay here. It so happens that my job brings me into contact with Dublin’s upper middle classes; and, after a few pints, their shallow, ill-informed (generations spent reading the likes of Eoghan Harris and the effects of Section 31) and insulting remarks about the GAA, about “diddle-aye” music and about Northern politics can be hard to take.
Seán